J.Jpn. Surg. Soc.. 85(12): 1518-1522, 1984

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Original article

DETERMINATION OF DISCRIMINATORY POWER OF PROGNOSTIC FACTORS FOR RECURRENCE OF BREAST CANCER

Vascular and lymphatic invasion of cancer cells, type. of histology, histopathological TNM classification, level of tumor invasion, menopausal status and age, were reported as prognostic factors of breast cancer.
We determined the discriminatory power of above prognostic factors for predicting breast cancer recurrence in 98 patients, with the method of quantification theory type II using a computer, model Hi-TAC M-150. The discriminatory rate of these combined seven factors for recurrence was 82.609%.
We calculated the probability of breast cancer recurrence using the method of quantification theory type II. The probability of breast cancer recurrence (P) was given as follows.
P=1/1 +7.333 e^5.468x
The score x is given by sum of category weight of seven prognostic factors.
Averages of P values of patients with recurrence and without recurrence were statistically different (p＜0.01).
The rate of having more than 30% of P values was 78% in 23 patients with breast cancer recurrence, and its was only 3% in 75 patients without breast cancer recurrence.
The difference was statistically significant. (χ²= 61.83,p＜ 0.001). These results suggest that we can discriminate a high risk patient with breast cancer recurrence using this method.

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